After three essentially two-party candidate elections we are seeing something somewhat different this time around. We still have the two dominate parties but this time we have four main candidates. The obvious two are Clinton and Trump, the other main candidates are Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. This is happening because of the unpopularity of the top two candidates. I don’t think the third party candidates will make a significant difference on Election Day but it makes things more interesting.
As the race stands right now Hillary Clinton has a slight edge among the top two candidates. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is running a distant third while Jill Stein is in fourth. Gary Johnson is benefiting from Trump and Clinton’s unpopularity by taking away votes from them. Jill Stein is taking some votes away from Clinton but it won’t be enough to swing the election. There are some Republicans who will be voting for Gary Johnson because they despise Donald Trump. It could be enough to give the election to Hillary Clinton.
The 1912 presidential election Teddy Roosevelt, a former Republican ran third party. The split in the Republican Party helped elect Woodrow Wilson. In the 1948 election, Strom Thurmond a Dixiecrat took away votes from president Truman in the general election. President Truman defeated his main opponent Thomas Dewey in an upset even with Thurmond siphoning votes from Truman. In 1992 Ross Perot helped elect Bill Clinton. In 2000, Ralph Nader took away enough votes that it cost Al Gore the election. I’m not saying that a third party candidate guarantees that they will play the spoiler, but it definitely can be a factor.
The other unusual thing we will likely see this year are Republicans voting for Gary Johnson for president and voting for Republican candidates down ballot. The U.S. Senate races are tight with the Democrats having a slight advantage. If there ends up being a landslide for Hillary the House of Representatives might be in play for the Democrats. At this point it is possible but not likely. The Democrats need to gain four senate seats to win the majority, five if Hillary Clinton doesn’t win. My next update will give a clearer picture of who will win the election.
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