Archive | January, 2016

2016 Preview

31 Jan

Tomorrow will begin what will be an incredibly busy election year.  The Iowa Caucuses will be followed next week by the primary in New Hampshire.  We certainly won’t know who the nominee of either party will be in the following weeks, but we will see the candidates list start to narrow.  It is likely that this year both nomination fights will go on longer than usual.

Senator Ted Cruz seemed like he was going to win Iowa until Donald Trump went on the attack.  Most of the Republican candidates are placing their bets on other primaries and caucuses.  Ohio governor John Kasich and former Florida governor Jeb Bush need to place in the top 3 or even 4 in the New Hampshire primary or one of them may drop out.  Donald Trump will probably win Iowa and has a good chance of winning New Hampshire.

The Democratic primaries will most likely be a two person race towards the end of the primary process like it was in 2008.  I think that Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will split Iowa and New Hampshire.  (Bernie will probably win New Hampshire, while Hilary could squeak out a win in Iowa)  There are some similarities between the 2008 democratic presidential primaries and there are some differences.  Hilary Clinton is better prepared this time around.  She has locked up many endorsements heading into this year.  In 2008 she underestimated Barack Obama and the support he got in his party.

This year Bernie Sanders is running with fewer endorsements than Obama had in 2008.  That doesn’t mean Bernie Sanders doesn’t have a chance at winning the nomination.  Bernie Sanders has energy in his campaign that Hilary Clinton does not.  Senator Sanders also faces a tougher road then Clinton after Iowa and New Hampshire.  Martin O’Malley is at this point a long shot for the Democratic nomination for president.  He isn’t raising the money that his opponents are and he isn’t catching on with voters like his opponents.

Something that is sometimes overlooked this year are the U.S. Senate elections.  The Democrats are in good shape to take back the Senate this year, especially if Donald Trump were to win the Republican nomination for president.  Republican Senators in IL, WI, OH, and NH are vulnerable not to mention potentially close races in FL, KY and PA.  As I have said before, politics are constantly changing so we won’t know for sure what will happen until Election Day.  It’s going to be in interesting election year.