Archive | February, 2016

Super Tuesday

29 Feb

Tomorrow we will have the biggest primary battle of the year.  On the Republican side it may signal whether Trump is well on his way to winning the nomination for his party in November, or we could find out that there will be a prolonged race to the Republican nomination.  The Democratic side will likely continue well past Super Tuesday.  Even if Secretary Clinton gets more delegates, Senator Sanders will likely keep going until the nomination is out of reach.  I also think that after Super Tuesday we will likely see John Kasich and Ben Carson drop out.

Although more of the delegates will be handed out Tuesday than any other day, no nominee will be decided.  Keep in mind that 8 years ago then Senator Obama was behind Hilary Clinton in the delegate count after Super Tuesday.  On the Republican side the race was practically finished with Mike Huckabee hanging on until McCain was close to winning the nomination.  This time around we could end up narrowing the amount of candidates after Super Tuesday, but not actually knowing who the nominees will be.

So how did we get here?  Donald Trump being the front-runner for the Republican nomination is something that I thought was improbable last year.  Most candidates who say offensive things would have been forced to drop out months ago.  The fact that he is able to maintain such support after saying racist, offensive things leads me to the conclusion that there still is a racist element to the Republican Party.  That doesn’t surprise me since Southern Democrats steadily became Republicans in the decades that followed the passage of the Civil Rights Law.

Donald Trump has shown refusal to explain or distance himself from White Supremacists.  (Most recently David Duke)  Donald Trump can still be stopped from winning the nomination, but that pathway has been rapidly narrowing.  If he wins big tomorrow there will be little the Republicans can do to stop him from winning the nomination.  That isn’t to say that his rise hasn’t been met with resistance within his own party.  Some Republicans have said that they will refuse to support Trump if he is the nominee.  Mainstream Republicans have wanted to stop him since he announced but have either been incompetent or unable to do so.

On the Democratic side there has been a rehash of the 2008 primary with some caveats.  Hilary Clinton is representing the establishment while Bernie Sanders has become the populist candidate.  The main difference between now and 08’ is that Secretary Clinton isn’t making the same mistakes that she made 8 years ago.  She has wrapped up support from many Democratic elected officials and she is taking Senator Sanders more seriously then she took Obama in 08’.  This doesn’t mean she will definitely win the nomination, but she is certainly in better shape for winning the nomination.

A lot will happen tomorrow.  We will find out if Trump is truly insurmountable and we will have a better idea who will win the Democratic nomination.  Keep in mind that a year is an eternity in politics, so a matter of months could shake things up.  If your state hasn’t had a primary I encourage you to register to vote if it isn’t too late, and vote if your state hasn’t had a primary already.