Archive | January, 2013

Intro to Blog

30 Jan

Welcome to my (new and currently only) blog!  Anyone who knows me, knows that I have a huge interest in politics.  This blog will be mostly be about politics, but I may sneak in several random blogs from time to time.  (i.e. baseball)  I will try to write a blog on a regular basis, but I may have a gap between blogs once in a while.  I have a degree in Political Science and spend my free time researching politics, among other things.
So why did I use Unconventional Political Wisdom as a title?  For several reasons.  First off, analyzing politics isn’t something that any person can do.  (Although many will try to)  I’m not saying this to demean anyone; I’m saying it because it is true.  People have different interests.  In addition, politics isn’t a subject that many people can understand in a deep level.  I for instance can tell you very little about architecture.  If our interest isn’t in the area, we may not be proficient in it.

Another reason I used the word Unconventional in politics is because politics doesn’t always go the way we expect it to go.  We make a lot of assumptions about what will happen but we will be wrong on predictions that may seem obvious at the time.  If conventional wisdom were always right Hillary Clinton would have won the Democratic nomination in 2008 or Heidi Heitkamp would have lost this year.  Politics isn’t always about the obvious.  If it were, anyone could analyze it.  You have to look at every possible scenario and ask, “What is the probability that this could happen?”

I’m not going to pretend that I am always right in predictions, indeed no one is or will be.  Like anything else we use the evidence we have to make a prediction or decision.  In late 2007 I was one of the few people that thought that Obama could win the nomination the following year.  Polling at the time had Hillary way ahead of Obama.  What some people didn’t factor in was that it was early in the nomination fight.  When you use polling you have to realize that the closer to the election, the more accurate it will be.  The other thing you have to think about is that the only polling that is 100% right, is on Election Day.  In this blog I will do what isn’t always clear to anyone, analyze what happens in politics and what may happen in the near future.  I hope you find my blog as interesting as I find politics.  (or at least half as interesting)

Sam

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