Tag Archives: Hilary Clinton

The Home Stretch

31 Oct

We are in the home stretch of the presidential election.  The candidates are making their final arguments to the voters and early voting is happening as we speak.  This election is important, but also a disappointing one.  With less than two weeks until the general election we have two most unpopular candidates in modern history.  In this presidential race we have reached the bottom.

In the beginning of the month an old tape of Donald Trump was released where he admitted to sexual harassment at the very least and sexual assault at worst.  The Access Hollywood tape has effectively ended the presidential race.  Republicans have finally condemned him and some have rescinded their condemnation of him.  The damage has been done.  After he got the nomination I thought that he had a slim chance of winning because of his tendency to act like a toddler.  The Access Hollywood tape has put his campaign in jeopardy and may even put the House Republican majority in jeopardy.

Republicans running for the House and Senate are in a bind.  Congressmen Joe Heck of Nevada is running for the U.S. Senate in Nevada.  His previous support for Trump may cost the Republicans a chance at picking up a senate seat.  Some Republicans are at risk of losing support if they abandon Trump.  What you are seeing happening right now is exactly what Republican insiders were afraid of when Trump announced his run last year.  He is damaging Republicans down ticket.

After the 2012 election the Republicans did an analysis on why they lost.  Although Romney won a high percentage of the white vote he lost women and Hispanics which cost Romney the election.  The Republican Party vowed change to appeal to more voters, but nominating Trump has done the opposite.  Trump is on track to get a lower vote of Hispanics than Romney did and Trump’s comments on women will cause him to lose a majority of the female vote.  The Republican establishment wanted to pass an immigration bill but they were unable to get it through the House of Representatives because Tea Party Republicans objected to it.

What happens after the election is somewhat uncertain.  If Trump loses (which he likely will) he will leave the Republican Party in ruins.  Trump’s supporters will probably blame a rigged system as well as the base of the Republican Party for not supporting Trump.  The Republican base will blame Trump and rightfully so for blowing a winnable election.  None of this had to happen.  If the Republicans nominated John Kasich or almost any other Republican candidate they would be leading Hillary Clinton.  The Republican Party will need to quell the talks of the election being rigged.

I will close my final blog before the election with this.  Please vote.  It is one of the most important things you can do as a citizen.  Go to www.ballotready.org and research candidates positions on the election and find your polling place.

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Super Tuesday

29 Feb

Tomorrow we will have the biggest primary battle of the year.  On the Republican side it may signal whether Trump is well on his way to winning the nomination for his party in November, or we could find out that there will be a prolonged race to the Republican nomination.  The Democratic side will likely continue well past Super Tuesday.  Even if Secretary Clinton gets more delegates, Senator Sanders will likely keep going until the nomination is out of reach.  I also think that after Super Tuesday we will likely see John Kasich and Ben Carson drop out.

Although more of the delegates will be handed out Tuesday than any other day, no nominee will be decided.  Keep in mind that 8 years ago then Senator Obama was behind Hilary Clinton in the delegate count after Super Tuesday.  On the Republican side the race was practically finished with Mike Huckabee hanging on until McCain was close to winning the nomination.  This time around we could end up narrowing the amount of candidates after Super Tuesday, but not actually knowing who the nominees will be.

So how did we get here?  Donald Trump being the front-runner for the Republican nomination is something that I thought was improbable last year.  Most candidates who say offensive things would have been forced to drop out months ago.  The fact that he is able to maintain such support after saying racist, offensive things leads me to the conclusion that there still is a racist element to the Republican Party.  That doesn’t surprise me since Southern Democrats steadily became Republicans in the decades that followed the passage of the Civil Rights Law.

Donald Trump has shown refusal to explain or distance himself from White Supremacists.  (Most recently David Duke)  Donald Trump can still be stopped from winning the nomination, but that pathway has been rapidly narrowing.  If he wins big tomorrow there will be little the Republicans can do to stop him from winning the nomination.  That isn’t to say that his rise hasn’t been met with resistance within his own party.  Some Republicans have said that they will refuse to support Trump if he is the nominee.  Mainstream Republicans have wanted to stop him since he announced but have either been incompetent or unable to do so.

On the Democratic side there has been a rehash of the 2008 primary with some caveats.  Hilary Clinton is representing the establishment while Bernie Sanders has become the populist candidate.  The main difference between now and 08’ is that Secretary Clinton isn’t making the same mistakes that she made 8 years ago.  She has wrapped up support from many Democratic elected officials and she is taking Senator Sanders more seriously then she took Obama in 08’.  This doesn’t mean she will definitely win the nomination, but she is certainly in better shape for winning the nomination.

A lot will happen tomorrow.  We will find out if Trump is truly insurmountable and we will have a better idea who will win the Democratic nomination.  Keep in mind that a year is an eternity in politics, so a matter of months could shake things up.  If your state hasn’t had a primary I encourage you to register to vote if it isn’t too late, and vote if your state hasn’t had a primary already.

2016 Preview

31 Jan

Tomorrow will begin what will be an incredibly busy election year.  The Iowa Caucuses will be followed next week by the primary in New Hampshire.  We certainly won’t know who the nominee of either party will be in the following weeks, but we will see the candidates list start to narrow.  It is likely that this year both nomination fights will go on longer than usual.

Senator Ted Cruz seemed like he was going to win Iowa until Donald Trump went on the attack.  Most of the Republican candidates are placing their bets on other primaries and caucuses.  Ohio governor John Kasich and former Florida governor Jeb Bush need to place in the top 3 or even 4 in the New Hampshire primary or one of them may drop out.  Donald Trump will probably win Iowa and has a good chance of winning New Hampshire.

The Democratic primaries will most likely be a two person race towards the end of the primary process like it was in 2008.  I think that Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will split Iowa and New Hampshire.  (Bernie will probably win New Hampshire, while Hilary could squeak out a win in Iowa)  There are some similarities between the 2008 democratic presidential primaries and there are some differences.  Hilary Clinton is better prepared this time around.  She has locked up many endorsements heading into this year.  In 2008 she underestimated Barack Obama and the support he got in his party.

This year Bernie Sanders is running with fewer endorsements than Obama had in 2008.  That doesn’t mean Bernie Sanders doesn’t have a chance at winning the nomination.  Bernie Sanders has energy in his campaign that Hilary Clinton does not.  Senator Sanders also faces a tougher road then Clinton after Iowa and New Hampshire.  Martin O’Malley is at this point a long shot for the Democratic nomination for president.  He isn’t raising the money that his opponents are and he isn’t catching on with voters like his opponents.

Something that is sometimes overlooked this year are the U.S. Senate elections.  The Democrats are in good shape to take back the Senate this year, especially if Donald Trump were to win the Republican nomination for president.  Republican Senators in IL, WI, OH, and NH are vulnerable not to mention potentially close races in FL, KY and PA.  As I have said before, politics are constantly changing so we won’t know for sure what will happen until Election Day.  It’s going to be in interesting election year.

2015 Recap

28 Dec

This year brought more insanity in politics, an odd/offensive person as front-runner of the Republican Party, and terrorist attacks by ISIS.  We saw the retirement of a legend in news and satire as well as the return of Stephen Colbert.  In addition to that Republicans took control of congress for the first time in almost 10 years.  A new congressperson became Speaker of the House.  All of this is leading up to another presidential election year.

I’ve been remiss to mention Donald Trump in my blog, but there is no denying he is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president.  I still have doubts he will win his party’s nomination.  Even if he were to get his party’s nomination he would face a near-impossible climb to the presidency.  He has alienated Hispanics, which are crucial to winning any presidential election.  He also has offended many other groups of people.   There is nothing genuine about Trump.  His most recent proposals to ban Muslims and suggesting that they should be registered should disqualify him from the presidency.

The other thing that this year brought was ISIS committing several terrorist attacks across the globe.  You can bet that will be a main topic during the presidential election next year.  ISIS is not much different than Al Qaeda.  If we can defeat Al Qaeda (which seemed insurmountable 14 years ago) we can beat ISIS.  In fighting ISIS we must have a strategy outside of militarily.  If we decide to block Syrian refugees as some Republicans have suggested, we are showing the world that we are as intolerant as ISIS.

Towards the end of the year Jon Stewart ended his long run with the Daily Show.  In an era where people don’t pay attention to the news, Jon Stewart drew people’s attention.   He covered what was important and became one of the most trusted sources of news.   After he left the Daily Show he helped bring awareness to the 9/11 first responders re-authorization.

One of the biggest changes of the year is that Gay Marriage is now legal in all 50 states.  The opinion of gay marriage has also changed among the people in the U.S.  A majority now support gay marriage.  The fight for gay rights aren’t over, but it took a huge step this year.  Gay marriage and gay rights will be a main topic in the election next year.

As with every presidential year, next year will be interesting.  The Iowa caucuses will be in the beginning of February.  New Hampshire will soon follow.  On the Democratic side, I think Hilary Clinton will be the nominee.  The Republican side is wide open.  Donald Trump could win some primaries, but the nomination fight will likely continue for several months.  Marco Rubio could make a race out of it if he wins one of the early primary or caucus state.  It will likely be a close election.  Stay tuned.

2014 Year in Politics

28 Dec

Another year brought more drama in our semi-functional government.  The end of the year brought closer yet again to a government shutdown.  A controversial, last-minute deal averted another disaster.  I’d like to be more optimistic, but I doubt much will be different in congress next year.  Expect the usual political posturing and drama for the remainder of President Obama’s term.  Even if we have similar action in congress, we will still be some improvements in the next coming year.

One of the things that hasn’t really been talked about after the midterms was that the Tea Party had waning power in the last election.  This could mean slightly less paralysis in congress.  Ted Cruz will still continue to grandstand but his last stunt backfired.  Senator Cruz kept congress in session longer then it was suppose to allowing more of President Obama’s nominees to pass the senate, many of which wouldn’t have been confirmed by the senate had it not been for Senator Cruz.

The most significant thing we will see next year will be candidates announcing their intention to run for president of the United States.  Jeb Bush has already taken the first steps towards running, and Hilary has been hinting for some time that she will run.  I still think there is a chance that Mitt Romney will decide to run again.  The Republican race will be wide open with several contenders some of whom we won’t know until sometime next year.

The Democratic race for president won’t be as close as the Republican nomination process.  If Hilary Clinton runs she will be the immediate front-runner.  I still don’t think she is a lock for the Democratic nomination.  Leading up to the 2008 presidential primaries, most people thought she would easily win the Democratic nomination.  She had a commanding lead over then Senator Obama in most of 2007.  I was one of the few people that thought Senator Obama could beat Hilary.

As I have said in my blog before, you can’t expect conventional wisdom to rule the day every time.  Hilary has a better chance than the last time she ran, but she could still lose the nomination.  Brian Schweitzer, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb and Martin O’Malley have all hinted that they may run for president.  If you are hoping to find out who will be the nominees of each party next year, you are in for a disappointment.  We won’t even know who the real front-runners are until the primary process has begun.  If you want to look out for anything next year, look at the members of either houses of congress who will run for president.